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ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are right. the overwhelming majority of the time when someone holds a lead of this magnitude, this consistently, they wine up winning. and, you know, there are reasons to think the polls could be off. it's tough to talk to people on cell phones. assumptions about turn out are more important than ever. but, yeah, you're right i think the polls have to be wrong at this state level. >> polls ask who are you going to vote for but there's data around polls who do you think will win and that's extraordinarily predictive. why is that qu
ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are...
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nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state. that's how bad it is. >> so why is mitt romney going to pennsylvania? >> well, i think he's looking at the fact that he can't win in ohio, he's behind there. even his people are sort of acknowledging that that's falling off the map. he has to either win in wisconsin which is also looking very much out of reach. or he has to figure out some other path of pennsylvania. i don't think it's credible but he's trying to do at least a head fake to figure out you some other path to get there. >> jonathan, to you. you might have thought that
nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state....
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not so much in nevada where there are more mexicans. you're right. this idea of focusing on foreign policy rather than on economic policy, not a good play. you saw mitt romney try to do that early on. he was in texas, for instance, early on in this race, and talking about those issues. but, again, in texas, that's a state he is going to win. have i been quite surprised that you haven't seen mitt romney out on the stump with people like susana martinez. he hasn't been out with brian sandoval. >> you've named those names. and to that point the ad i referred to might appeal to cuban americans in florida. but we know he has to extend his reach to the latino community beyond florida. with that said, i don't know what he would present on the table with immigration, but he has allies that are available to him, successful latinos within his own party that he has not reached out to broaden a message of, i don't know, economic recovery or whatever, the american dream story that susana martinez forever offered up at the rnc. >> yeah, very powerful message. >> a
not so much in nevada where there are more mexicans. you're right. this idea of focusing on foreign policy rather than on economic policy, not a good play. you saw mitt romney try to do that early on. he was in texas, for instance, early on in this race, and talking about those issues. but, again, in texas, that's a state he is going to win. have i been quite surprised that you haven't seen mitt romney out on the stump with people like susana martinez. he hasn't been out with brian sandoval....
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we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have the polling data that showed they were going to win and they did not win in any of those states. this is just part of the way the game is played. it's just bluffing. and that is important context for understanding what's going on in the last four days of the campaign. there are patterns to how presidential elections end. some of the same stuff happens every four years. specifically, in 1992, the republican candidate was poppy bush. he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, he lost pennsylvania. the next election, 1996, bob dole. right before the election,
we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have...
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heidi high votes in nevada. what we're going to see in virginia for example there'll be some romney tim kaine democrat votes. there will be romney claire mccass tell votes in missouri. one thing you'll see there will be structural ticket splitting that will be pretty measurable in a lot of these senate races. that's something we haven't even well that will ager i think well for democrats. >> always a pleasure to speak with both of you. thank you. stay with msnbc for all day coverage of the home stretch to election day. craig melvin continues our live coverage this afternoon at 2:00 eastern followed by a saturday edition of the cycle, news nation with cameron hall and now with alex wagner. nothing to turn your channel for there. >>> well, federal and state officials are taking extreme measures to bring more fuel to the region. trucks are going to distribute free fuel. free that is across the region. and millions of gallons of fuel are now flowing into new york ports. even more is coming. we're going to have a lot
heidi high votes in nevada. what we're going to see in virginia for example there'll be some romney tim kaine democrat votes. there will be romney claire mccass tell votes in missouri. one thing you'll see there will be structural ticket splitting that will be pretty measurable in a lot of these senate races. that's something we haven't even well that will ager i think well for democrats. >> always a pleasure to speak with both of you. thank you. stay with msnbc for all day coverage of...
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president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the edge in colorado. let's turn to bob shrum, professor of public policy at nyu and contributor to the daily beast. great to have you with us tonight. let's leave the names out of it for a moment. obama and romney. let's just take candidate a and candidate b. who would you want to be right now with the numbers playing? >> you would want to be candidate a assuming that's the unmentionable who is the president of the united states. he has a lot of roots to 270 electoral votes. if you look at candidate b, candidate b isn't even going to florida in the next few days. you can interpret that in one of
president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the...
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nevada, colorado, virginia, in particular and we have seen that there's been so much damage to the republican brand this year not only with, you know, with voting blocs such as women and african-americans but particularly with latinos who by the way most people will remember voted in huge numbers for george bush in 2000. he received 35% of the hispanic vote in 2000. and in 2012 latinos no longer feel at home within the republican party of today. so barack obama, you can see it's a big part of his coalition. we'll be going out knocking on doors and doing everything he can to get the hispanic vote particularly in swing states. >> michael let's broaden this thing out a bit. there's a headline from politico that got my attention this morning. obama's demographic gamble, quote obama is likely to get blown out among white voters on election day narrowly lose independents nationwide and yet may still win based on historic margins among groups that off ten lean democratic but don't vote in high waits. latin jobs african-american, young people and unmarried women as well. do you see this unfolding com
nevada, colorado, virginia, in particular and we have seen that there's been so much damage to the republican brand this year not only with, you know, with voting blocs such as women and african-americans but particularly with latinos who by the way most people will remember voted in huge numbers for george bush in 2000. he received 35% of the hispanic vote in 2000. and in 2012 latinos no longer feel at home within the republican party of today. so barack obama, you can see it's a big part of...